The Allowance Experiment Gets Better

Happy consequences of my wonderful, awful idea
Happy consequences of my wonderful, awful idea

More Happy Unintended Consequences

More exciting things (to me) keep unfolding from the ongoing financial education of my 8 year-old.

A little while back I took all of my daughter’s tooth fairy savings and invested it in Kellogg stock, a wonderful, awful, idea of mine to begin teaching her about investing.

Following that, my daughter realized she had no cash anymore, which she found a lot less fun than I did.

As a result, she asked for an allowance a few weeks ago, which reminded me of Andrew Tobias’ advice about allowances from his The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need.

 

The Tobias allowance idea

In summary form, he advises paying ‘daily interest’ on a small nominal starting amount, over a period of 1 to 3 months, so that kids can viscerally feel the money-grows-money magic of compound interest.

For my daughter I paid $1 into a glass jar on Day 1.  Further, I have promised to pay her 10% in ‘daily interest’ on all money accumulated in the jar, over the course of 30 days.

For example,

Day 2 I paid 10 cents (10% of $1).

Day 3 I paid 11 cents (10% of $1.10)

Day 4 I paid 12 cents (10% of $1.21)

Day 5 I paid 13 cents (10% of $1.33)

Day 6 is today.

Your update on that project is as follows: This is even better than I expected, because of some unexpected consequences of my requirements.

Day 6 - Time to Round Up!
Day 6 – Time to Round Up!

My requirements[1]

I asked my daughter to document her 30 days of allowance in a lined journal.

One column shows the date, while the next column has the day number.  The third column shows the daily 10%, while the final column lists the accumulated total in the jar.

I required her to calculate 10% of the total each day, as well as add up the totals on her own.  If she wants to get paid, she needs to do the math.  It’s a small step, but I’m so happy I required this.

 

A digression

I sometimes walk around my neighborhood wondering whether all of the world’s ills could be solved if people knew how to quickly and accurately calculate percents of things.  Wouldn’t it all be better if we really understand discussions of percents of things?[2]

Am I the only one who thinks this?  The Federal budget, poverty in America, tax policy, retirement savings, or properly tipping the bartender – I mean we’d all be better at all of these key problems if we could only calculate 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and intuitively understand what they mean.

When I see my daughter moving the decimal place over one numerical place to figure out 10% of her allowance jar savings, a little part of me jumps up and jauntily jigs with joy.  Because this is a good life skill, and also SHE WILL BE THE NEXT FED CHAIRMAN TO SUCCEED JANET YELLEN.

 

The next math consequence – rounding numbers.

In addition to teaching compound interest, and teaching the calculation of percents, another math concept arose today.  On day 6, she has $1.46 in the jar.  Well, the contribution amount today isn’t 14 cents now is it?

My daughter is in third grade, and they’ve talked about rounding numbers, but this is probably the first time she’ll get to materially benefit from rounding up numbers.  That’s right, 15 cents goes in the jar today.  The numbers are starting to add up quickly.

I understand I derive an inordinate amount of pleasure from teaching my kid these math concepts.  But is there anything more important right now?

Ok, fine, empathy.

But then after that?

 

Please see related posts:

Daddy Can I have an Allowance?

Daughter’s First Stock Investment

Book Review of Andrew Tobias’ The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need

 


[1] My managing editor (aka wife) had allowance requirements for my 8 year-old too, such as “pick your crap up off the stairs and put it back in your room where it belongs.”  But you can see that kind of stuff further described in the Mommys-Anonymous.com blog.

[2] We can all agree that the world’s ills could be solved teaching the calculation of percents, plus empathy.  But if I had to choose between teaching empathy and the calculation of percents, well, shoot, which do you think I should do?  I kid, I kid.  I’m an ex-banker.  OBVIOUSLY ITS CALCULATING PERCENTS.

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Book Review: The Only Investment Guide You’ll EVER Need

It pains me to write this[1], but Andrew Tobias’ hyperbolically titled[2] The Only Investment Guide You’ll EVER Need actually lives up to the name.

Tobias delivers solid personal financial advice, but in a playful tone.

He enlivens an entire chapter on saving money – the world’s dreariest subject – with anecdotes about his own fetishistic ways to scrimp.[3]

In the chapter about beginning to invest, Tobias delivers the punch-line early on: Trust No One, while offering fairly hilarious ways in which his younger, more gullible self, failed to head his own good advice.

In the stock-investing chapter, he hits the essential notes which readers of my earlier posts and reviews will know by now:

  1. The vast majority of individuals, could do a lot worse than just buying low-cost index mutual funds and never selling, as advocated by Nick Murray in Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth.
  2. Some money managers out of a large group will appear to ‘beat the market’ for an improbable-seeming time, but this type of result can be replicated with a coin toss experiment, as described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Fooled by Randomness.
  3. The intrinsic value of a stock derives from an enterprise’s ability to generate current and future cash flow, as Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor explains.
  4. Investing your first slug of savings through an IRA or 401K vehicle is a no-brainer.  But even outside of tax-advantaged vehicles, the tax code heavily favors stock investing as a way to get rich.

 

Tobias made money early in his life – through best-selling books and then more significantly through best-selling personal finance software – so he managed to quickly accumulate a lifetime’s worth of successful and unsuccessful investment experience.  He spins his unsuccessful experiences into memorable and hilarious ‘How-Not-to-Invest’ stories throughout the book.

But the best part of the book, Tobias saves for last.  He comes up with an amazing way to teach kids about the power of compound interest, a personal obsession of mine.

Tobias suggests three versions of a Cookie Jar Experiment, which over a month can viscerally and intuitively teach the magic of compound interest to your kids.

 

  1. Version One.  Offer your kid $1 on day one, and put it in the cookie jar.  Offer to add 10% per day in interest growth on that original $1.  Thereafter – Day 2: $1.10 in the jar, Day 3: $1.21, Day 4, $1.33.  After a month you’ve got $17.45 in the jar, which shows how powerful 10% compounding can be, even if you begin with just $1.  Tobias suggests you probably won’t continue the experiment to the end of Month 3 ($5,313) or Month 6 ($28 million) but of course, that’s up to you and your own resources.  While ‘real life’ doesn’t let you compound that quickly on a daily basis, the experiment lets you demonstrate the amazing power of compound growth. [NOTE: I have since done this experiment with my oldest daughter, which I wrote about here.  And then a follow-up post on the same topic here, as this allowance experiment is even better than I first realized.

 

  1. Version Two.  Between your two kids, you offer the same deal, with a twist.  If one of them is willing to skip the first three days of interest accrual, they can get something desirable like a chocolate bar.  After they finish fighting over the chocolate, you run the experiment for two months.  The kid who went hungry has $304, while the ‘lucky’ kid who got the chocolate only has $228 in the Cookie Jar at the end of 60 days.  Lesson: Start saving early because it’s the earliest accruing period that matters the most.

 

  1. Version Three.  Run the same experiment, but use the interest rate associated with many credit cards, like 20%.  Start adding money to the $1 at a 20% growth rate and label this ‘Credit Card’ growth.  On day 19 the ‘credit card’ account has grown to $32, versus the $6 that the original savings at 10% per day grew to.  If you run the comparison all the way to day 35, the difference is $590 for the credit card account versus $28 for the ordinary 10% growth account.  The key to this version is pointing out that some people scrimp and save and achieve some growth on their savings, while others pay huge amounts to credit card companies.

 

I taught a personal finance course last Spring, for bright college students, and I plan to do the same next Spring.  One of my frustrations was with the textbook we used, a dry-as-dirt tome written by CPAs, seemingly for CPAs.  My co-teacher and I ended up hardly ever referring to it, because how can you expect anyone to read such a thing?

Unless I can come up with something better real soon, the students will get assigned Tobias’ book.  I think it’s all they need.[4]

Please see related post: All Bankers Anonymous Book Reviews in one place.

 

Only Investment Guide You'll EVER Need
Only Investment Guide You’ll EVER Need

[1] It doesn’t actually pain me to say this.  I use that turn of phrase to capture the sense of the Oscar Wilde aphorism “Every time a friend succeeds, a little something in me dies.”  And Tobias is not a friend, but rather, I am jealous because I’m attempting to write a personal finance book, and Tobias has done such a good job with his.

[2] Tobias is a fan of the hyperbolic title, such as his excellent and funny My Vast Fortune, which I reviewed last month.

[3] He apparently carries Crystal Light powdered packets when he travels to save on beverages, buys canned goods by the pallet at Costco, rarely accelerates his car (to save on gas), checks his bank statements for errors every month, and has substituted cubic zirconium for diamonds in any jewelry purchases he ever made.  In a related story, his net worth is above 99% of the people reading this right now.

[4] Until my book comes out, of course.

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Book Review: Master Math; Business and Personal Finance Math

I’m finishing up teaching an undergraduate course on Personal Finance this month, for which I find the assigned textbook totally useless, so I am on a quest to come up with a useful book to recommend for students as well as Bankers Anonymous readers.

What’s useful

The most impressive strength of Master Math: Business and Personal Finance Math by Mary Hansen is that it cuts out all the (mostly) banal ‘advice’ of a personal finance book, and concentrates instead on how to do the calculations.  The math level never rises beyond algebra, which frankly is all anyone needs to know, in order to competently manage their personal or small business finances.

I find this a useful guide for a ‘Do-It-Yourselfer,’ or a person intent on learning exactly how car loan companies calculate APR vs. APY, or insurance companies quote term life insurance.  A CFO for a small business or non-profit would also likely benefit from this useful introductory reference.

I’ve frequently paid but never personally calculated FICA taxes, for example, and it’s somewhat satisfying to learn how straightforward the math is.  I have personally prepared business balance sheets and budgets, debt to equity ratios, and tracked profitability, but the straightforward presentation would be useful to others who have not done so before, but who need to learn.

What’s missing

Missing from Master Math, however, is my personal pet project: Understanding discounted cashflows and compound interest – the keys to good personal finance decisions.  While the author presents a ‘compound interest’ table and defines the term (in contradistinction to simple interest), a table does not really cut it.

The limitations of print media for personal finance math

Reading the book this week has inspired a new thought, however, of which I’m increasingly convinced.

Personal finance and small business math, while not complicated, requires fluency with a spreadsheet program like Excel.

Master Math offers good, but somewhat convoluted algebraic formulas to calculate answers.  In print, the author cannot show the dynamic changes in personal finance outcomes from changes in variables.

Properly set up in a spreadsheet like Excel, by contrast, a change in loan interest rate, for example, alters every monthly payment as well as the total cost of a loan.  A small change in automatic monthly withholding, for example, changes everything when it comes to long-term retirement savings.  Only by seeing the dynamic effects, I think, can we understand what control we can have over personal financial decisions and outcomes.

What is the right media?

I know Khan Academy has changed everything when it comes to math pedagogy.  Although I enjoyed Master Math, I’m also sure personal and small business math has to be taught, and learned, through a combination of video, practice problem sets, and acquired fluency with Excel.  Static text on a page isn’t enough.

This is something I’d like to work on over the next few years.

Please see related post: All Bankers Anonymous Book Reviews in one place.

Master Math Business and Personal Finance Math

 

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Upper Income People Can’t Be Bothered With The IRA

cigar and moneyPlease see my earlier post on The Humble IRA.

 

Does the humble and homely Individual Retirement Arrangement (IRA) matter to well-paid people?

I remember being shocked in the late 1990s when my mentor Jim on the bond trading floor at Goldman declared “I don’t bother with IRAs because nobody’s getting rich investing through an IRA.”

I eagerly sought out wisdom on personal finance at the time, so I was struck that such a clear tax-advantaged vehicle could be overlooked by a financially savvy professional like Jim.

He was a Vice President at the time and made a good salary and bonus, with bright prospects.  He then became a partner about 6 years later, wholly and thoroughly justifying his scorn for the lowly IRA as a wealth-building vehicle.

His example stuck in my head over the years because – more than the stark irrelevance of an IRA for his own personal situation – I’ve realized that he’s basically right – upper income and wealthy people as a whole really have no use for the IRA.  It’s a waste of time for them.  This is true for a number of reasons.

1. The maximum tax deductibility limit of $5,000 doesn’t get you very far if you have many multiples of that amount to invest.  In the 1990s, when my mentor made his scornful statement about not getting rich from an IRA, contribution limits were stuck at $2,000 – making his scorn even more justifiable.  But even with the upward adjustment to $5,000 in 2012 and $5,500 in 2013, that still doesn’t provide much tax advantage.

2. Most highly compensated people have access to a 401K or a similar saving plan which offers many times the tax-advantaged contributions of an IRA.  If you own your own business, or if you work for a high-paying salary, you could put away at least $17,000 pre-tax in 2012, in addition to larger amounts through employer profit-sharing, leaving the homely and humble IRA in the dust.

3. If you have access to a much better, bigger employer retirement plan like a 401K, as most highly compensated people do, suddenly you’ve lost the $5,000 IRA tax deductibility if you make more than $68K individually, (or $112K if you file with your spouse.)

The end result: my mentor Jim was right.  Upper income people really can’t be bothered with the IRA, and I can’t fault their logic.

All of the above is particularly ironic to me because I’ve spent the past month arguing, pleading, berating, and otherwise pestering the undergraduates to whom I teach personal finance into opening and funding their first personal IRA.

I’ve taught them about the key building-block concepts of compound interest, and understanding wealth, and how to budget and save money.

I’ve argued that opening and funding their first IRA – which I assigned as mandatory homework to them this week – is a key culmination of everything I’ve taught them.

And I do believe in the value of the IRA for them in particular, as I assume they will not be highly paid in their first years out of college, nor will many of them have access to a 401K right away.  So an IRA makes a ton of sense for them.  At least for now.

What I haven’t told them is that as soon as they’re well-paid and wealthy they can forget all about the IRA, with my financial blessing.  But please don’t let them know this yet.

First they have to open the IRA, before they can forget all about it.

 

Please see related posts on the IRA:

The Humble IRA

IRAs don’t matter to high income people

A rebuttal: The curious case of Mitt Romney

The magical Roth IRA and inter-generational wealth transfer

The 2012 IRA Contribution Infographic

The DIY Movement and the IRA

Angel Investing and the IRA

 

 

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Book Review: Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth by Nick Murray

Nick Murray’s Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth, [1] deserves to be the exception to my rule of never reviewing “How to Invest” books.

Stylistically, Murray’s prose is the Yin to Nassim Taleb’s Yang.[2]  Murray is gentle, meditative, and modest in affect, part financial advisor and part Zen master, contemplating the beauty of compounding investment returns[3] and inter-generational wealth-building.

Yet for all his gentle style, he’s no less sure of himself or passionate when it comes to what he sees as simple, but overlooked principles for building wealth over time.

Since I’ve come to adopt his views as my own, it’s worth highlighting the best of them here.

  • Murray questions the common journalistic narrative[4] as it mostly misleads rather than informs.  Even worse, the journalistic narrative rarely asks the key questions for wealth building such as “What is Risk?”, “What does wealth mean to me?” and “Who am I?” (I’ve hyper-linked to my earlier consideration of the latter two questions.)
  •  Timing the market is a fool’s game[5], whereas time in the market will be your greatest natural advantage.
  • The highest value of an investment advisor is often to tell you to not do anything.  This sounds a lot like advice from Benjamin Graham.
  • Only equities provide the possibility of growing wealth in perpetuity.  I would add – but Murray does not – some other risky assets in addition to equities for certain people and institutions.  Murray has a particular fondness for stock mutual funds, and, for the vast majority of people, I concur that that’s all you need to grow wealth.  My own definition of ‘equities’ would include ownership in not only stock mutual funds, but also allow for a broader variety of risky vehicles such as real estate, traditional business ownership, commodity investments, or other volatile assets.
  • For the individual investor, bonds are an “anxiety-management tool” but not a wealth-building tool.  Unfortunately – given current interest rates – this is truer now than it was when Murray first published his book in 1999.  At this time, fiduciaries who depend on managing money in perpetuity cannot afford to be in bonds, a big, under-recognized problem – in my opinion.

His strongest points, which he spends the bulk of the book proving to my satisfaction are the following:

First, owning a diversified portfolio of equities over the long-term does not carry significant risk of capital loss.  The diversified portfolio of equities is subject to volatility, but volatility passes away under long-term time horizons[6] and should not be conflated with risk.

Second, building wealth through the steady accumulation of equity mutual funds is simple,[7] and the result of this behavior, over a lifetime, is inevitable wealth.

Third, in contrast, bonds or riskless assets will not build wealth, but rather condemn the investor to a long-run loss of purchasing power.  If your goal is to build wealth – rather than provide current income – you cannot afford to be invested in bonds.

Murray’s main message – as restated above – may be manipulated, distorted, exaggerated or parodied, but cannot be proved wrong.

Professionally I’m a “fixed-income/bond guy” through and through,[8] so I believe in the uses and opportunities of bonds and safe cash-flows.  Despite my experience and biases, I believe Murray on his own terms, is absolutely, capital “R” Right.

Please see related post: All Bankers Anonymous Book Reviews in one place.

 

 


[1] Full title of the book: “Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth – How You And Your Financial Advisor Can Grow Your Fortune In Stock Mutual Funds”

[2] I greatly admire and recommend Taleb, but as I’ve written on Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan, his prose style can be abrasive.

[4] Also known as the “Financial Infotainment Industrial Complex”

[5] On timing, Murray writes: “Time in the market, as opposed to timing the market, is not a way of capturing the long-term returns of equities; it is the only practicable way.  You have to stay in it to win it.”  This makes a lot of sense if you understand the magical power of compound interest.

[6] He defines long-term as, at minimum, 5 years.

[7] Murray explains that, while the process is simple, simple is not the same as easy.  It’s incredibly hard, in fact, to have enough left over, after paying your bills, to constantly invest in equities month after month, year after year, for your entire life.  But if you can do that, wealth is inevitable.  Hence, the title of the book.

[8] I’ve been a bond salesman, and fixed-income hedge fund manager.  I have no professional experience with the stock market.  Mostly I find conversations about stocks and the stock market incredibly uninteresting.  But I still believe you have to have your money exposed to them, or other forms of risky equity, to build wealth.

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Part VI – Concluding Thoughts on Personal Finance Math

conspiracy_thinkingOr, why everyone needs to know this, beyond getting rich or avoiding poverty.

Please see my earlier posts

Part I – Why don’t they teach this in school?,

Part II – Compound Interest and Wealth

Part III – Compound Interest and Consumer Debt

Part IV – Discounted cash flows – Pension Buyout Example

Part V – Discounted cash flows – Annuity Example

 

A further reason why we need to learn discounted cash flows as a society

Are the US government’s assumptions about future social security obligations reasonable? Or are they instead unrealistic, or based on a Ponzi Scheme, as Peter Schiff and Ron Paul claim?

If you could do discounted cash flow calculations you could begin to form an answer.  You can see how the federal government would calculate exactly what the present value of those obligations is.

But “discounted cash flows” sound so esoteric to the average citizen – since we never learned it in junior high – that pundits and politicians with conspiracy theories who casually throw around words like “Madoff” and “Ponzi” begin to sound reasonable in comparison.  Which is really not a helpful direction for us to go in, as a society.

 

It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

 

Conclusion

I would love for Bankers Anonymous readers to explain to me[1] why the most powerful mathematical formulas in the universe, compound interest and discounted cash flows, never get taught to junior high students, then high school students, then college students.  And then again to anyone applying for a credit card, or mortgage, or car loan, or annuity, or pension, or saving for retirement.  Or arguing about the growth of federal debt – or the rise of future social safety-net obligations.

We’re blind people stabbing each other in the dark without these formulas.

All of the consumer financial protection bureaus in the world can’t help if consumers have no tools to do their own thinking.

All the fiscal cliff negotiations and partisan point-scoring amount to a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing, if we as citizens cannot see how money grows in the future or how future obligations get valued today.

 

“Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.”

–Macbeth, Act V, Scene 5

Macbeth

Part I – Why don’t they teach this in school?,

Part II – Compound Interest and Wealth

Part III – Compound Interest and Consumer Debt

Part IV – Discounted cash flows – Pension Buyout Example

Part V – Discounted cash flows – Annuity Example

and Video Posts


[1] I’m searching for some explanation better than 1. Math teachers don’t get it and 2. The Financial Infotainment Industrial Complex doesn’t want you to know about it.  And by the way, I don’t really ‘blame’ math teachers, just like I don’t necessarily think there’s a vast conspiracy of the “Financial Infotainment Industrial Complex.”  But I do like saying that phrase, as it sums up nicely the financial crap we get inundated with all day long.

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