Posts Tagged ‘Politics’

Political Markets: Democrats' Chances Of Holding The Senate Just Doubled

Political Markets: Democrats’ Chances Of Holding The Senate Just Doubled

By The Banker | Blog Posts

I generally trust markets when it comes to political forecasting, which is why I dabbled in trading contracts on the Iowa Political Markets in both 2008 and 2012. I’d rather trust in people’s actual money-on-the-line to indicate an aggregated belief in who will win an election, rather than your average poll – or worse – [&hellip

Follow the Money, then Act with Love

Follow the Money, then Act with Love

By The Banker | Audio Posts, Video

Such an important and powerful Ted talk by Lawrence Lessig. Lessig rightly points out the perfectly legal, sanctioned, and structural corruption at the heart of American Democracy.  Only 0.05% of us really fund elections, which really means its only 0.05% of us who select and vet candidates and have access to them once they’re in [&hellip

Four Reactions to the Election

Four Reactions to the Election

By The Banker | Blog Posts

Four quick thoughts now that the elections are over, from a recovering banker. 1. The equity indexes fell immediately at the open today, and remain down over 2% on the day.  Do not let any talking head from the financial-industrial-infotainment industry try to suggest that this is in response to Obama’s election.  Every trader on [&hellip

One More On Nate Silver

One More On Nate Silver

By The Banker | Blog Posts

I don’t read Paul Krugman much because his column falls in the category of people-whose-politics-are-entirely-too-predictable, when it comes to financial or political analysis.  I have this weird aversion to reading (or listening to, for that matter) the thoughts of people about whom I can predict their stance even before the conversation begins.[1] However, occasionally Krugman [&hellip

Texas Senate Candidate Sadler: Honey I Shrunk The Texas

Texas Senate Candidate Sadler: Honey I Shrunk The Texas

By The Banker | Blog Posts

Paul, can we talk about your yard signs? What is the deal with your horrible logo and signage? You placed a little teeny tiny Texas in the middle, surrounded by a red circle, just below your giant-font name. Look, I’m new to Texas.  But even I know that you’re not supposed to lead with the [&hellip