Book Review: Big Hot Cheap and Right, by Erica Grieder

We’re all about to get dunked[1] by the US Presidential race in a deep-water tank of Texas exceptionalism.

With a year-long GOP primary season ahead of us, get ready for Texas Senator Ted Cruz to explain how extremely small government (plus God!) serves us best. Also, prepare for Texas native son (now Kentucky Senator) Rand Paul to explain the same, but without the God part. We can look forward to former Texas Governor Rick Perry pitching his Texas economic miracle to the rest of the United States. And do not forget GOP favorite Jeb Bush who – like his younger brother W. Bush – grew up in scenic Midland, TX.

Even if you regard Texas with extreme prejudice – as I did before moving here in 2009 – you can’t avoid its prominence as the blueprint of Red State plans for the rest of the country.

I read Erica Grieder’s Big, Hot, Cheap, and Right: What America Can Learn From The Strange Genius of Texas as a kind of primer on the GOP Primaries.

ted_cruz_limited_government_and_god
Ted Cruz

If you’re an East or West Coaster who mostly learns about Texas from the NYTimes’ Gail Collins’ periodic columns on the biggest little state in the Union, I recommend Grieder’s deeper dive into some of the state’s colorful history, characters and traditions.

I read with most interest the parts of her story concerned with the ‘Texas Miracle’ and in particular Texas’ curious tradition with respect to the government’s proper role in economic development.

Here’s the thing that’s struck me since I arrived, and Grieder concurs: Texas political leaders do not actually pursue free-market economics in practice. There’s a strong tradition and ongoing practice, in fact, of the government picking winners and losers in the marketplace.

Before moving to Texas, I associated the rugged libertarianism of, say, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, with the idea of government’s limited role in an economy. Yet time and again I’ve noticed that Texas governments – both State and City – take very seriously their mandates to subsidize particular businesses and particular industries.

‘Limited government’ in Texas really means limited government services to households, but it does not preclude the government from picking winners among businesses.

Elected officials – both Republicans (at the State level) and Democrats (who dominate all of the major cities in Texas) – always couch these targeted subsidies to businesses in terms of ‘jobs growth.’ The thinking, I guess, is that what’s good for a business owner is generally good for employees, since business owners are ‘job creators?’

As Governor, Rick Perry championed the Texas Enterprise Fund, a general purpose ‘economic development’ fund which handed out $507 million to ‘promising’ companies and institutions, specifically linked to ‘job creation’ achievements.

The State Auditor’s report in September 2014 found “control weaknesses” that made it impossible to verify ‘job creation’ claims by Perry government. The Auditor also found applications from private companies for funds to be insufficient and non-compliant with the original requirements of the Enterprise Fund. As Grieder reports in her book, many recipients of Enterprise Fund money, perhaps unsurprisingly, donated generously to Rick Perry’s campaigns, as much as $7 million to Perry’s reelection funds and the Republican Governors Association.

rick_perry_enterprise_fund

None of these results are surprising to observers of the Fund. What is surprising is Perry’s supposed allegiance with free-market, low regulation, limited government approaches, while spearheading the Texas Enterprise Fund.

The New York Times reported in 2012 that Texas under Perry has the highest rate of tax incentives targeted to specific companies of any state in the nation. Again, not surprisingly, there’s a strong link between beneficiaries of tax breaks and contributors to state officials, as reported by the New York Times.

But this Texas tradition of picking winners and losers in the marketplace is not limited to the GOP. The stakes are lower at the local level, but seemingly just as common.

Among the Democratic-controlled city where I live, every other week it seems a city or county ‘economic development’ group hands out a combination of targeted tax breaks or grants to a particular company.[2] Sometimes my city’s economic development team even directly invests in the equity of startup companies[3], which strikes me as, basically, insane.

This type of government-driven economic development violates everything I believe about:

  1. How actual economic development happens
  2. How winners and losers in an economy should be sorted
  3. How business owners actually decide to ‘create jobs’ or not ‘create jobs,’ in their businesses
  4. How government should best interact with private business
  5. How natural conflicts of interest between public office holders and private capital controllers should be mitigated.

Yet, Texans on both side of the political spectrum don’t seem bothered by these ‘Texas Miracle’ tactics, at least as observed in the press or at the polls. This tradition of direct subsidies to chosen industries and companies – as described in detail by Erica Grieder’s book – does not seem to elicit the kind of visceral reaction it would back where I come from.

texas_flag

Here in Texas, this is all frequently described as ‘incentivizing job creation.’ Where I come from, it’s usually called corruption.

Erica Grieder’s tale of Texas’ peculiar history, characters and economic power cover a wide range of topics, but I appreciated most these parts focused on this peculiarity of Texas government and culture.

I’ll be watching the GOP primaries closely with an eye to how this plays out among all of Texas’ native sons.

Grieder covers other ground in her book as well.

If you’re already a Texas resident with a reading habit – I read Texas Monthly, Texas history books, plus the local paper, – many of Grieder’s story lines and anecdotes will seem familiar already.

At times the book reads like a review of recent political journalism. Grieder’s not providing a ton of data in these sections, but rather journalistic narrative. This makes for a fun book to read, and Grieder’s a talented writer.

We are left short of ‘proof’ that Texas has something to offer distinctive from other states, other than Texan’s belief in their own exceptionalism.

Please see related posts:

City Direct Investments – Ugh

Subsidies all the way down

big_hot_cheap_right

[1] Is waterboarding an appropriate metaphor here? Or is that too much?

[2] Here’s one for a local Caterpillar manufacturer last week. This one for a solar manufacturer was a doozy.

[3] As in this one, in which the City put money into a local private equity incubator, and this recent one, in which the City bought equity in a startup medical device maker, in return for it relocating to San Antonio. I hate this.

 

 

Post read (1773) times.

Lord of the Rates, Part I – The One Rate To Rule Them All

Saurons_Eye
One Rate To Rule Them All

Our present Phenomenally Low Interest Rate Era slips quietly into the next.

Interest rates will rise very, very, soon.

We sense the change, but wonder, what does this mean? For many here in Middle Earth, interest rates remain mysterious.

Fortunately, I found an ancient scroll during my sojourns in the Eastern Lands. Many nights, like the Grey Wizard Gandalf himself, I studied Isildur’s ancient texts, and translated that scroll from the Black Speech  of the land of FOMC. I can now reveal the scroll to you, as it explains the mysteries of interest rates. My best translation:

 Three rates for mortgage brokers under the sky

Seven for the bankers in their halls of stone

Nine for consumers doomed to die

One for the Yellen on her dark throne

In the land of FOMC where the money’s born

One rate to rule them all, one rate to find them,

One rate to bring them all and in the darkness bind them

In the land of FOMC where the money’s born.

 

To state a commonly held view1, the Fed funds rate  (aka The One Rate To Rule Them All) goes up in September 2015. Or June 2015, I don’t know, they don’t tell me these secret things anymore. Soon, though.

Ring_of_power
I translated the Black Speech from this Ring I found

Looking back from the future, we will recognize clearly the specialness of this Era, the Phenomenally Low Interest Rate Era.

We will see it as a halcyon time for some, such as prime mortgage and prime auto-loan borrowers.
(I still can’t believe I got a 2.75% 15 year mortgage!)

We will see it as a desert wasteland for people and institutions trying to live off scant bank or bond interest.

But wait, a Hobbit now pulls at my wizard sleeves. “What is an interest rate again?”

hobbit_home
Hobbits wonder: What is an interest rate?

A bridge

An interest rate is a mathematical bridge linking money today to money in the future. Money today is always worth a different amount than money in the future. (This, according to the Wizards’ mysterious spell-chant known as ‘The Time Value of Money.’)

As the near-immortal High Elves of Middle Earth knew, the present ever-slips into the future.

elves_pass_into_the_west
Elves pass into the West, just as money fades into the future

Just as the Elves – sensing the end of their Age – passed wordlessly but inexorably into the West, so too does our money fade imperceptibly but inevitably in value as it slips into the future.

To make up for that loss, the wise ancients decreed that the borrower of money must always provide additional money in the future to the lender.

But how much additional money?

Ah! There you have it. ‘How much additional money?’ is exactly what an interest rate tells us.

If the interest rate is 6%, the borrower owes $6 for every one hundred dollars borrowed for a year. If the interest rate is 18%, the borrower owes $18 for every one hundred dollar borrowed for a year.

Back to Fed funds

Perhaps you’re also wondering, how does the Fed funds rate – aka The One Rate To Rule Them All – actually work?

We start with the fact that US banks are required to hold a certain amount of money, called “reserves,” at the Federal Reserve. Some banks may periodically have too much, or “excess reserves” with the Federal Reserve, while others may periodically have too little.

Banks with too little reserves – presumably temporarily – are allowed to borrow from banks with excess reserves.

The Federal Reserve (Well, a specific board known as the Federal Open Market Committee, made up of regional Federal Reserve Governors) sets a rate at which big banks may borrow that money, for just one day, from each other, using their own reserves held with the Federal Reserve.

A bank that needs money in the short-term – for making new loans, paying its lenders, or returning money to depositors for example – can borrow money overnight from banks that have this surplus sitting with the Federal Reserve.

That specific one-day interest rate – known as the ‘overnight rate’ since the loan from one bank to the other bank lasts ‘overnight’ for just one day – serves as the anchor for all other interest rates in the US dollar economy.

The Fed funds rate, currently set by the committee at a range between 0 and 0.25%, allows large commercial banks to borrow money very, very, cheaply. That cheap bank borrowing in turn fuels very cheap loans to the rest of us in Middle Earth.

Everyone who is not a bank, but who gets a bank loan, will borrow at an interest rate higher than the Fed funds rate, as determined by a combination of their bank and ‘the market’ for loans.

Since your bank can borrow money at 0.25%, it can choose to offer you the chance to borrow money pretty darn cheaply, while still making a profit.

riders_of_rohan
The Riders of Rohan probably floated municipal bonds to raise their army

The dwarves, burrowing in their mountains, borrow cheaply for mining operations. The elves borrow to maintain their palace at Rivendell with attractive home equity lines of credit. Halflings can fill up on ale, on credit, at The Golden Perch or The Green Dragon. The humans of Rohan maintain expensive cavalry regiments through their municipal bonds. Each race responds to the incentives of their particular interest rates. But those are all at rates set by the market. Only the Fed decides, by a small committee, the One Rate To Rule Them All.

If the Fed needs to nudge banks to lend to each other at or near its target rate, the Fed’s trading desk uses a market mechanism called “open market operations.” These are really market-based purchases or sales of bonds to soak up money or release money into the economy.

You could think of the Fed’s open market operations as analogous to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that the federal government controls, periodically soaking up oil supply or releasing oil supplies, pushing oil prices up or down in the short run.

Something similar happens with the supply of money via bond purchases and sales, when the Fed wants to enforce its Fed funds rate or range.

Like the One Ring of Power, the Fed funds rate interacts with other key ‘Ring Bearers,’ such as mortgage bankers, commercial bankers, and consumer borrowers, each of whom in his own way determines the other interest rates in the economy of Middle Earth. All respond to the inexorable pull of the One Rate To Rule Them All.

 

Please enjoy subsequent (upcoming) nerdfest posts on this “Lord of the Rates” Theme.

LOTR Part II – Does the Fed ‘create money?’ How is Money Born?

LOTR Part III – Mortgage Rates

LOTR Part IV – Consumer Rates

 

Related posts on similar themes:

My 2.75% mortgage, Timing, and I am a Golden God

Fiduciaries: Is It all Unsustainable Right Now?

 

Also, see related video posts

Video: Interest rates are a bridge linking money today to money tomorrow

Video: Interest Rates – Time Value of Money

 

 

 

 

Post read (1590) times.

  1.  Ok, it’s really a Goldman Sachs economist’s view, but we all know who pulls the strings. Haha, kidding. Sort of. Not really.

Judgment vs Objectivity – My Recent HELOC Renewal

A version of this post ran recently in the San Antonio Express News.

My wife and I recently renewed our home equity line of credit 1  with our bank.

nutella_is_the_best
HELOCs are as good as Nutella

When the notary at my bank had us in the room for 30 minutes busily initialing and signing many dozens of pages per a minute – pausing approximately 0.7 seconds per page – my mind began to explore the absurdity of it all.

Am I supposed to have read each page? Does this signature here actually compel my compliance with everything on the page? Really?

Hidden in the fine print of these documents, the bank probably slipped “And, henceforth I, Michael Taylor, by my signature below, do solemnly agree to wear a rubber ducky costume to work every day. Also I agree that my banker is the super-duper coolest person ever” and there’s no way I would have caught that in the fine print.

And yet, I signed. My cursive name must mean I agreed to it all. Yes, I agreed to whatever they wrote down there!

I’ve worked on many sides of the mortgage business for many years now, so I understand the point of this paperwork. To wit, the papers have zero to do with serving borrowers and 100 percent to do with creating a CYA paper trail – a paper trail that serves the lender, not me, if things go badly.

I get that.

I wish I didn’t have to participate in this charade of me ‘agreeing’ to something which I am unwilling to read thoroughly, that the bank knows I am not reading, and yet the bank also knows they can take me to court and win by arguing successfully that I agreed to all their terms, if I fail to comply with said terms.

We’ve all had that experience of mindlessly signing and initialing page after page of unread documents.

What do all those initials and signatures, the unreadable documentation, plus all of the regulatory morass that underpins it all, stand in the place of? Human judgment.

nail that sticks outWritten rules substitute for our ability, or the bank’s ability, to make individual decisions specific to a situation.

But here’s the weird thing that I returned to in the midst of signing my name dozens of times in front of my notary: this dehumanization of the decision process is a good thing. This automated decision-making process works to our advantage.

We think we want our bankers to be able to use their judgment. But we really don’t.

We think we would all be better off if we had a banker, like George Bailey from It’s a Wonderful Life, who could look us in the eye and say: “Here’s a loan, Taylors, I trust you. Don’t worry about all that boring paperwork, your handshake is enough.”

We’d skip out of the bank buoyed by Banker Bailey’s great judgment and trust in our solid character.

To the extent that George Bailey’s world ever existed (it may have, or it may not have) I don’t think that was a better world for borrowers for at least for one important reason: Borrowing costs.

All the impersonal unreadable language assists in making mortgage loans like my HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit, but you know that) one of the cheapest ways to borrow on this planet.

Banks do not really underwrite mortgage loans anymore. Instead, they originate mortgages for a fee, and then feed the mortgage bond investor system with similarly situated mortgage loans. To feed that system, every single mortgage or HELOC must conform precisely to the standards of bond investors.

The mortgage bond market attracts a billion of dollars of investment capital on a daily basis 2 to fund home ownership. That money invested in mortgages gets offered at rock bottom interest rates precisely because of the uniformity enforced inside a mortgage bond.

Any non-conformity in the mortgage underwriting process makes the loan ineligible for inclusion in a mortgage bond structure. “The nail that sticks out must be hammered down,” as the Japanese cliche goes.

With a signature missing here or an initial missing there, the bond structuring companies would kick our loan out, and the bank would get stuck with an inefficient product on their books, which is the last thing they want.

I’ve never worked in the Wal-Mart supply chain, but I’ve read about the incredibly strict standards by which suppliers must meet packaging specifications to get their stuff into Wal-Mart stores. Those inflexible standards help produce the rock-bottom Wal-Mart prices. Human judgment or flexibility with the rules would raise prices in Wal-Mart, just as it would for my HELOC.

walmart_mortgages
All things must be automated

When my wife and I signed our HELOC recently, we were the product being packaged for sale into the mortgage bond market. We got a great interest rate, and it only required an assembly-line approach to signing everything.

 

Please see related posts

Ask an Ex-banker – Home Equity Lines of Credit

Why You Hate Your Bank – Lack of Judgment

 

Post read (2383) times.

  1. By the way, home equity lines of credit are the bomb. Tangential to the following discussion, I believe home equity lines of credit – despite causing widespread financial destruction in 2008 – are the best invention since Nutella on toast. But that’s a discussion for another time and place.
  2.  How do I get that number, you ask? Great question. The US mortgage bond market added up to $8.7 Trillion in mortgage bonds at the end of 2014. At a weighted average coupon of 4.5% (I made that up but it feels average-y at this point) that would generate about a billion dollars in interest per day. Factoring in principal repayments the US mortgage bond market has to attract more than a billion dollars every day just to stay the same size.