Averting College Financial Disaster – Barely

My family dodged a major financial catastrophe this Spring. 

I have one large point to make about the difficulty of making optimal personal finance choices within one’s own family. In the telling of the story, I slip in some small points about paying for college and updates to 529 education savings accounts.

This story ends well, but for a while it looked like we were totally cooked, financially.

Pursuing one’s dream 

In November 2021 we did an official campus tour of highly selective out-of-state private University A. Old buildings, beautiful weather. Incredible foliage. Everything you’d want based on the brochures. My daughter, early in her high school career then, fell in love. I think it was the foliage. University A became her top choice from then on.

You might think allowing her first to fall in love with, and then second to apply to, a private out-of-state university was the original sin we committed. You wouldn’t be wrong. On the other hand, she has told us for at least the past four years that going to college out of state was a primary criterion. We respected that. Also in our defense we had not been totally irresponsible with funding her 529 account, which we started when she was 1.5 years old. The account had grown to something substantial. 

A gorgeous building at University A

Unfortunately, the sticker price of higher education for private universities has also grown, but to absurd heights, over the last 20 years. What normal family can afford this? If you haven’t checked lately, the all-in cost (tuition, room & board, books, fees, insurance and transportation) is about $90 thousand per year. Multiplying that by 4 years gets you to $360 thousand for an undergraduate degree. What even? Huh?

Briefly about 529 Accounts

529 accounts are merely fine investment vehicles. They are better than nothing. They are inferior to retirement accounts like 401Ks or IRAs.

I advise parents who have to choose which bucket to place their scarce investment dollars to fund their own retirement accounts more generously than their child’s 529 account. The tax advantages, opportunity for employer-matching, and long-term growth are all superior in retirement accounts as compared to a 529 account.

Another long-time knock on – or at least fear about – 529 accounts was that overfunding these accounts could leave dollars stranded, unusable for education purposes. I know that’s possible because two different families I am close to – relatives of mine – have overfunded their kids’ 529 accounts.

A 2024 change in 529 rules has made these accounts somewhat better and reduced the risk of “stranded money.” I’ll describe the rule change below.

But first, back to my daughter’s college journey.

She received a number of college acceptances this Spring, including her dream school, University A. Yay! 

Because of its prestige, it has a policy of not offering merit scholarships. This is typical of highly selective universities in which the admission office essentially says “all of our accepted students have extraordinary merit,” so nobody gets money on that basis. Boo! 

University B – With a generous merit scholarship!

She also got into University B with a very generous merit scholarship. For social and sporting reasons she also strongly considered University C, which offered a decent scholarship. In April of this year she had narrowed down her choice to A, B, or C. All three out of state, and private. The sticker prices for each is wildly high, but because of the three different merit scholarships, A, B, and C had totally different actual costs for our family.

The difference between finance rules and real life

With my finance-guy hat on, I know the cost of private out of state college is utterly ridiculous. Unconscionable. Absurd. Specifically, University A would cost us more than twice the amount that we had saved up over 17 years.

University C was also in the mix as an attractive option

But I am not only a finance guy. I am also a dad and a husband. And something strange happens when you try to apply finance-guy rules to real life choices for people who you love more than anything in the world. The rules melt away in the face of your most precious relationships.

[A reader recently wrote in to chastise me for making certain choices with respect to home equity line of credit debt, which isn’t in line with theoretical best practices. That’s right, I have done that. I will continue to deviate from best practices at times. Other criteria are sometimes preferable to the finance theory.

I know deep in my bones the personal finance rule that for a student – and her parents – going into extraordinary debt for undergraduate education is not a wise idea. And yet, when it came to the moment for my daughter to decide on college before May 1st, 2024, we did not insist on her choosing the optimal financial strategy. 

We said she could choose University A. 

My wife and I were those parents who did not enforce the right thing financially. Because of the crazy cost of private higher education, we faced taking on six-figure debt to make her dream come true. To paint a slightly fuller picture of the University A scenario, we also would have required our daughter to borrow the full amount of Federal unsubsidized loans under her own name, which adds up to $27,000 over four years. Which is also not optimal.

Financially, this was nuts. Emotionally, however, we were not willing to deny her a chance to pursue her dream. 

The new 529 to Roth IRA rules

As I promised, I also have a small point to make about paying for education. That is, while 529 accounts aren’t amazing, they just got incrementally more flexible in 2024. That’s a good thing. Beginning in 2024, surplus funds – by which I mean money in a 529 account that will not ultimately be spent on the beneficiary’s education – can now be repurposed in a very advantageous way.

Surplus 529 account funds can be contributed to a beneficiary’s Roth IRA, with certain restrictions in the fine print, as follows.

First, the 529 account must have been open for a minimum of 15 years. Next, the lifetime limit for moving surplus 529 funds to a Roth IRA is $35,000. At the current annual individual contribution limit of $7,000, it would take at least 5 years to max out this 529 to Roth IRA conversion opportunity. In addition, the IRA beneficiary must have earned at least the contributed amount of income in the year it was contributed. So for example, a student earning $3,000 in income during a calendar year could only contribute up to $3,000 to her IRA that year. Finally, funds in the 529 have to have been in the account for more than 5 years before turning them over to the beneficiary’s Roth IRA. 

These are a lot of conditions to satisfy. The purpose of all these persnickety rules is to make sure the 529 account is not being used as a backdoor Roth IRA funding loophole.

This 529 to Roth IRA rule is available this year for the first time in 2024. 

Which is very very good! Because we got lucky and our daughter decided to give up her dream of University A in favor of University B. With University B, because of their generous merit scholarship, we will have funds left over in her 529 account at the end of 4 years.

In my family’s particular case, we satisfy all the persnickety conditions, so we are eligible to help fund our daughter’s Roth IRA, up to $35 thousand dollars, in her early working years. 

This is all subject to change if she chooses instead to go to graduate school or some other educational opportunity that is more attractive than funding her Roth IRA. She starts University B in a few weeks. Hopefully she’ll have a Roth IRA funded after her first 5 working years as well. We got lucky and it was a very close thing.

A version of this post ran in the San Antonio Express News and Houston Chronicle

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Red Sox as an illustration of Bayesian Probability Theory

DaveWill the Red Sox win the World Series this year?  What are their chances?

What are their chances of going all the way, if they win their first game of the playoffs this Friday?

Aha!  I have a chance to apply Bayesian probability theory!

I recently reviewed Nate Silver’s excellent The Signal and The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t , which at its core, advocates we adopt Bayesian probability methods for forecasting complex events.  Like Red Sox World Series championships.

Nate Silver’s Big Idea

Silver’s big idea is for us to move away from “I have the explanation and I know what’s going to happen,” to a different way of understanding the world characterized by “I can articulate a range of outcomes and attach meaningful probabilities to the possible outcomes.”

Bayesian probability

Bayes’ theory, Silver explains, helps us come up with the most accurate probability of some event occurring.  Fortunately, it’s not too complicated.

The Red Sox, of course, defy all probabilities

As we approach the MLB playoffs I’m fully aware of the irony of applying rational Bayesian probability to something as totally irrational, magical, and unlikely as Red Sox playoff outcomes.

My childhood and young adulthood consisted of them repeatedly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  Both the Game Six World Series loss in 1986 to the Mets and the 2003 ALCS loss to the Yankees[1] defied all semblance of probability – we didn’t need a mathematical theorem to tell us that.

At the time, all we knew was that God personally intervened in baseball outcomes and that she enjoyed torturing us.  And we hoped that God had plans for our redemption, some day.

We know now that, like the biblical story of Job, Red Sox Nation suffered for a reason.  We now own the Greatest Sports Victory of All Time, coming back impossibly from devastating losses in the first 3 ALCS games in 2004 to vanquish the Yankees and sweep the Cardinals.[2]  No sports victory has ever been as sweet as that.  It was all so improbable.  No math could ever explain that magic.

Greatest Sports Moments Ever, reduced to probabilities
Greatest Sports Moments Ever, reduced to probabilities

And yet, I insist we try to learn Bayesian Probability today

Fine then.

To use it, we need to define three known (or assumed) variables, in order to come up with a fourth, unknown variable, which is the thing we want to know, the probability of an event.

The known or assumed variables will be:

  1. X = an initial estimate of the likelihood of an event.  This is called a ‘prior’ since it’s our best guess of some probability prior to further investigation.  Before the playoffs even begin, how likely are the Red Sox to become World Series Champions?
  2. Y = The probability that if some condition is met, the event will happen.  In other words, how probable is it that a team that won the World Series had originally won their first game of the playoffs?
  3. Z = The probability that if that same condition is met, the event will not happen.  For a team that did not win the World Series, how probable is it that they won their first game of the playoffs?

 

The unknown variable, what we’re trying to determine, is our closest approximation of the probability of the event happening.

4. I’ll call that unknown variable V.  What is the probability of the Red Sox winning the World Series, if they win their first game on Friday?

The math formula of Bayes’ theorem, using these four variables, is:

V = (X*Y)/(X*Y + Z(1-X))

I understand that formula makes no sense in the abstract, so that’s why we’ll illustrate it with the Red Sox.

We need an example using numbers, please

Since it’s that time of year, I’ll ask the key question on everyone’s mind right now:

If they win on Friday, October 4th – their first game of the playoffs, will the Boston Red Sox go all the way on to win the World Series?

We can now define variables and assign probabilites

The variable V (This is the unknown what we’re trying to solve for)

V is the probability that the Red Sox win the World Series this year, if they win their first game of the playoffs.

 

Variable X, our prior

I will make our prior –the initial estimate for the Red Sox winning the World Series – 15%.  If all 8 playoff teams had an equal chance of winning the World Series my prior would be 12.5%, the percent equivalent of 1 divided by 8.  But given that the Sox had the best record in baseball this year – and they have studs like Big Papi and Pedroia – I have to boost their prior to 15%.

 

Variable Y, the conditional probability that the hypothesis is true

One of the requirements for using Bayesian probability theory is that we insert a conditional probability. We can simply express this hypothesis as “If this happens, this other thing is made more likely.”

In our example I’ll make the non-crazy hypothesis that there is some positive causal relationship between teams winning their first game of the playoffs and teams that eventually win the entire World Series.

Let’s assume we know, from historical data,[3] that teams that won the World Series had previously won their first game of the playoffs 58% of the time.  That’s our variable Y.

 

Variable Z, the false hypothesis variable

The false hypothesis variable in this example would be made from the 7 of 8 teams that historically begin the playoffs but do not go on to win the World Series.  Of these non-champions, what is the probability they won their first game?  I’ll estimate this at 45%[4]

Putting it all together

Using Bayes Theorem, we can now revise our estimate of the Red Sox winning the World Series, after the first playoff game has been played.

If the Red Sox win on October 4th, we can plug in variables X, Y and Z to determine the new probability of a glorious Red Sox World Series victory, variable V.

Remember: V = X*Y / (X*Y + Z*(1-X))

Plugging in our known and assumed probabilities, we get the

following math:

V = (15% * 58%) / ((15% * 58%) + (45%*(100%-15%)))

Solving that in an Excel Spreadsheet we get

V = 18.5%

Summed up, if the Red Sox win their first game Friday[5], we would revise our probability of them winning the World Series up to 18.5% from 15%.

Intuitively, this makes some sense.  There should be only a modest increase in the probability of a World Series championship after one game.

There’s a small positive correlation between winning the first game in the playoffs and eventually winning the World Series.

But even if it’s a blowout one way or another, let’s not get carried away.  The chances of them going all the way is only up to 18.5%.

bloody sock
Martyrdom & bloody sacrifice go beyond rational thought

Anchoring effect of priors

We should note, and Silver emphasizes, that the anchoring effect of priors greatly influences our updated probabilities.  In plainer English, our starting point for how we think the Red Sox are likely to do limits our ending point.

If we start with a prior that the Red Sox only have a 5% chance of winning the World Series, then their chances of winning the championship only jump to 6.3% after taking the first game, using my same assumed inputs.

Again using the same assumptions, if the Red Sox were 75% favorites to win it all, then a first game victory pushes them up to 79.5% favorites using the Bayesian Theorem.

Next Steps

If we want to follow the rest of the Red Sox playoff outcomes probabilistically, we’d take our revised prior – let’s say 18.5% after Game One – and come up with updated probabilities for variables Y and Z for Game Two.  To use new Y and Z variables effectively we would need new historical data to determine the conditional probability of a World Series victory based on Game Two results.

Continued iteration

Nate Silver would advocate applying this constant iteration, revising our probabilities and priors as new information arrives, for a wide range of complex phenomenon that defy prediction.  Will Mike Napoli’s beard change weather patterns inside Fenway?  Is it not Nate Silver, but rather Big Papi who is the witch? Will super-agent Scott Boras release a karma-bomb press release on another client like he did with A-Rod during the 2007 World Series, effectively marking the beginning of the end for A-Rod?  The probabilities change as the events unfurl.

Or not

Or conversely, we could just ignore all math, attach ourselves to one big idea, and never let go.

Because unrevised big beliefs, like sports fandom, do have their attractions.

Please see related post Book Review of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver

 


[1] Fie on you New York! Shaking my fist.  Arggh!

[2] Incidentally, that 53 minute 30-for30 video of “the Greatest Sports Victory of All Time” I linked to on Youtube is totally awesome.  Gives me the chils.

[3] I’m not a baseball stats geek with easy access to this kind of data, so I’m just making up numbers for the sake of illustration.

[4] Again, a stats geek could come up with the correct historical data to suggest a more accurate probability for the false hypothesis, but just work with me here a little bit on my completely made up numbers.

[5] And of course if my numbers were based on real data, rather than just picked out of the clear blue sky.

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