On “The Economy” (If Such A Thing Exists)

republican_candidatesOne of the odd things about listening to Republican candidates for president is their insistence on describing the ‘weak economy’ or the ‘anemic recovery’ of the Obama Presidency. For which they propose a new approach, naturally.

And obviously we understand why they say that. But just to be clear – that’s crazy talk.

“The US Economy,” if such an abstract thing even exists, may be described in short-hand by

  1. The National Unemployment Rate
  2. The Inflation Rate
  3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth
  4. Asset Prices – Like a broad US stock index (and maybe housing)

There are obviously many other things that impact how people feel about the economy, but on the grand scale of these four economic conditions – GDP, Unemployment, Inflation, and Stocks in 2015 – it doesn’t get any better than right now.

The Unemployment Rate

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a 5 percent national (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate, the lowest since 2008. The unemployment rate has only rarely been this low since about 1971.

Inflation

The past year’s inflation rate (through October 2015) was 0.2%, a ridiculously favorable rate. This is a stunning rebuke of the chicken-little claims about loose monetary policy since 2008, and it partly explains why the Federal Reserve waited so many years – until this week – to begin raising interest rates. No inflation. The last three annual inflation readings this low were 2009, 1955, and 1949. Again, it doesn’t get any better than this.

GDP Growth

The 2.4 percent annual GDP growth in 2014 – a crude measure of our increasing national output and wealth – is a reasonable historical rate. It’s grown faster in the past – an average of 3.22 percent since 1948 – but it sure beats shrinkage, and it’s not anything close to a recession or even particularly ‘anemic.’

gdp

Asset Prices

As of this writing the S&P500 Index is within spitting distance (off 3 percent) from its all-time historic highwater mark of 2134, something that could be breached without any warning in a day, or week.

In sum: We are living through the kind of incredible boom-time economic conditions that – as the 1980s hair-metal band Cinderella sang – you “Don’t Know What You Got ‘Till Its Gone.

When things get worse in the future, we will look back fondly to recognize 2015 as the Goldilocks situation that it was.

So, please guys, stop complaining about “The Weak Economy.”

“The US Economy” – at least in aggregate – is humming along awesomely.

Now, let me clarify: I don’t give President Obama credit for this economic boom. Frankly, no US president deserves much credit or blame for the performance of an economy during his tenure. We can’t stop critics or supporters from assigning credit and blame – that’s just what critics and supporters do – but thinking people (psst, that’s you and me) know better than to believe in it.

A Non-Crazy Position

One sort of reasonable position to take is that there’s no such thing as ‘The US Economy,’ but rather a variety of regionally and demographically-specific financial conditions. Think of South Texas, or rust-best manufacturing, or our inner cities.

“The economy” of South Texas for example is headed for an apocalyptic set of oil-based bankruptcies right now.

The “manufacturing economy” could be described as anemic, and is in a multi-decade secular decline. That will be true until, well, until always, because we pay people more money in this country than they are paid to do the same manufacturing jobs in other countries, which makes us less competitive in manufacturing. Overall that’s a high-class national problem, because it means workers get better pay here than in other places, but it obviously doesn’t feel like a blessing to traditional manufacturing employees.

And then there’s the “inner city economy”: high-school dropouts in our inner cities face inter-generational poverty for which there is no cure in sight. To a 20-24 year-old black man in 2015 – experiencing a 16.7 percent rate of unemployment right now – the difference between a recession and a boom in our overall economy may be hard to see. It likely feels like it’s always a recession in the inner city. The Obama presidency didn’t change that. Johnson’s “War on Poverty” didn’t change that. The economy will be weak in the inner city until college outpaces prison as the most-likely institutional destination for ambitious young black men.

we_think_inequality_is

It’s The Inequality, Stupid

One of my pet peeves of Presidential candidate discourse – and Rs and Ds do this in equal measure – is the laser-like focus on ‘middle-class jobs,’ as if everyone is middle class or above in this country. We engage in a weird collective blindness, as if pockets of extraordinary poverty don’t exist.

The so-called “Obama recovery” can seem weak to many because a booming economy produces very unequally-distributed benefits.

For the 50 percent of American households currently boasting zero to negative net worth, this “awesome economy” means very little.

For the top 10 percent of American households – who control 85 percent of financial assets – there’s nothing ‘anemic’ about the economic recovery of the Obama years.

With stocks up more than 100% since the Great Recession of 2009, in fact, the “awesome economy” of the past 7 years amply rewarded existing owners of wealth. Obviously, the other 90 percent of American households should feel differently. They’ve benefited very little by comparison.

There’s plenty to be upset about during the “Obama recovery.” It’s not at all true – as I think too many candidates for President argue – that the recovery is weak. It’s that the recovery is unequal.

 

A version of this post ran in the San Antonio Express News.

 

 

 

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Minimum Wage – Reasons To Be Cautious

Los Angeles celebrates a minimum wage hike
Los Angeles celebrates a minimum wage hike

I’m not a mean-spirited person (at least not after I’ve had my morning coffee) but I worry that writing about recent minimum wage law changes could lead some friends to accuse me of heartlessness. I don’t mean to be heartless.

The Los Angeles City Council recently voted 14-1 to raise the employee minimum wage in the city to $15 an hour, up from $9 an hour, in a gradual phase-in through the year 2020.

Meanwhile, New York City raised the minimum wage hike for fast food restaurant workers. Minimum wage hikes are ‘in the air’ as an urban policy idea nationwide.

While I don’t doubt the excellent intentions of the Los Angeles city council and their supporters, my immediate finance-guy reaction is to suspect that the minimum wage hike will leave many of the intended beneficiaries of this law worse off.

Wage island problem

Passing a private sector minimum wage law in a limited area – like within a single city’s boundaries – seems to me an invitation to employers to move businesses just outside city limits, or to consider starting businesses away from high-wage cities.

Minimum_Wage_Cities
Minimum Wage Cities

I know if I were an entrepreneur in Los Angeles this law might make me more likely to look to build or grow my business away from the city.

Clearly some service industries like retail stores and restaurants that depend on urban density cannot relocate away from a higher-wage area like Los Angeles.

But many other types of businesses can relocate to outside of a city limit, or can be started away from a city.

Most vulnerable workers

Employees with experience and specialized skills have significant leverage when setting their pay. Employers often complain that they cannot find enough skilled workers to fill their company’s needs.

Employees seeking a minimum wage job, by contrast, lack specialized skills or relevant experience unique for their job. They might be too young to have worked much, or they might lack desirable educational degrees. If they are older workers, they may have a checkered employment history or background. Employees seeking minimum wage work need a chance to build up experience or a track record to prove their worth to an employer. The minimum wage job could (and should) be the entry-level step, an on-ramp to higher skills and higher pay.

I’ve been an employer and an entrepreneur, and one of the scariest things for a small business is hiring new employees. Before the employee starts, you don’t how it all will work out. New hires, in fact, often don’t work out. You end up losing time, money and resources with new employees, in addition to suffering a spike in unemployment insurance rates for your business.

As an employer in Los Angeles, I might go to great lengths to avoid hiring an unskilled, untested worker at $15 an hour, compared to the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour.

I would hire fewer people, more reluctantly. I would lean on my proven, experienced workers more. I would seek to substitute automated processes for human processes. I would figure out a way to get by on fewer workers, because of the clear difference in my bottom line survival as a business.

minimum_wages_nationwide

Multiply that effort by tens of thousands of employers and I think you’ve got the makings for many fewer entry-level job opportunities in a high minimum wage area. I think you’ve got the making of higher unemployment rates in Los Angeles compared to outside the city.

Leap of Logic

Forgive me for the following leap of logic, in which I mention an extremely complex economic situation and simplify it for my purposes, but I think it relevant to mention that France’s official unemployment rate hovers above 10%. In a related story, France’s minimum wage is approximately three times higher than in the US, according to Thomas Piketty, the author of Capital In The Twenty-First Century.

Of course that’s not the whole story. There are undoubtedly many reasons for structural differences in France’s unemployment rate when compared to the United States’ rate, currently a little over 5%. But most people would agree that they have something to do with the well-intentioned worker protections in place in France. Those worker protections – which include minimum wages, in addition to rules about firing, and the social safety net – have great effects on both employee and employer behavior.

If you talk to an employer in France, they will describe their extreme reluctance to hire anyone, because of these protections.

Unintended consequences

The goal of minimum wage laws is to ensure better living conditions for the most vulnerable workers in an economy, by definition folks earning the least amount of money per hour that an employer may legally pay. But if the result is fewer jobs for that most vulnerable population, then is the law hurting or helping?

3.8 million people live in Los Angeles, with an estimated 800,000 affected by this change in the law. Each 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate among that population could mean 8,000 fewer people with any job at all.

Those 8,000 would be the most hurt by this minimum wage hike with only a 1% rise in unemployment. A move to France-like unemployment rates would mean 40,000 people in the Los Angeles area without a job. While that’s too extreme an effect to be likely, I do worry that well-intentioned city policy hurts the very people it’s meant to help.

You know what’s another possibility though? I’m totally wrong. I’ll discuss that, as well as San Antonio’s current proposal regarding minimum wages, in a subsequent column.

A version of this post appeared in the San Antonio Express News.

 

Please see upcoming post on

San Antonio’s minimum wage for government workers

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Kooky and Good Idea To Address Inequality

UK economist Anthony Atkinson published a book “Inequality: What Can Be Done?” in May of this year in which he proposes radical solutions to the most pressing financial problem of our time.

I thought I’d heard all the important arguments on the topic, and then this economist comes along with a totally bonkers idea that will never work.

“Hahaha, that Atkinson, what a goofy dreamer” I said to myself.

And then, over the next few days, I kept thinking about one of his totally bonkers ideas. It gnawed at me. And I realized that – practical and political objections be damned! – that is a pretty awesome idea.

That’s the way I feel about Atkinson’s ‘Universal Inheritance,’ which goes something like this.

Every eighteen year-old, upon gaining the right to vote, automatically receives an ‘inheritance’ from the federal government of some amount of money. Atkinson proposes a universal inheritance in the UK of 5,000 pounds, or about US$8,100 per kid.

Now, as a father I’ll be the first one to say, instinctually, kids shouldn’t inherit money. I mean, their brains have under-developed frontal lobes! They’re undeserving and can’t handle that kind of responsibility.

money_for_nothing

Also, as an American deeply immersed in the dominant financial paradigm that ‘Money for Nothing’ works as a Dire Straights anthem but not as social policy, my first grumbly thought about this idea was ‘those kids will probably just squander their $8,100!’

I can already picture the insidious marketing campaigns launched by Las Vegas casinos as soon my legislation for ‘universal inheritance’ for 18 year-olds passes Congress.

Because of curmudgeonly American fathers like me and similarly grumpy readers like you, clearly Atkinson’s universal inheritance has ZERO chance of happening anytime soon in the United States. Yet I’m intrigued by the thought experiment so let me tell you why I see this as an interesting, possibly awesome, idea.

And by the way, for those of you reading this, who picture a Red Socialist hammer and sickle above my head, I really don’t see this in bleeding-heart liberal terms. I see it as an affordable solution to a failure of the free market, the under-development of talent in an economy.

For the poor but ambitious, could a universal inheritance be the key to continuing their education?

For a huge number of 18 year-olds today, a lack of capital will prevent their enrollment in the next educational program beyond high school, whether that’s an apprenticeship/internship at a business, an associate’s degree, a state college, or an elite four-year private university.

Yes, scholarships exist in limited form to help some of those kids, and yes, some of the ambitious poor will manage to bootstrap their way to educational success. But even those lucky few will find financial roadblocks that scholarships don’t cover, like SAT prep courses, application fees, book fees, and transportation costs.

Clearly, with the cost of higher education these days, a $8,100 inheritance doesn’t get you very far along in a multi-year degree program. But it might be enough to make a start possible.

inequality_in_america
Who Owns What In America?

Why do I like the idea of a ‘universal inheritance’ rather than just further federal subsidies for student loans? I think because the universal inheritance is more flexible – it allows for more solutions than simply more ‘higher education.’

In my optimistic imagination the starter funds of a universal inheritance prevent the national tragedy of young people stuck in an economically-inefficient rut.

For a cohort of eighteen year-olds, a lack of capital may prevent their move from one employment backwater (a small town, a one-company suburb, a dying inner-city) to a more vibrant economy, in need of young workers.

In Queens, New York last month the young woman helping us at the car rental counter mentioned that “If I could just get $5,000 together somehow, someway, I could finally pursue my dream of moving down to Florida and becoming a designer. But until then, I’m stuck here.”

The way she described it, her $5,000 dream in life seemed like it might be years away. I’m picturing this universal inheritance as a one-time opportunity, if used wisely, to fulfill a dream otherwise impossible for children who come from poorer households.

I obviously don’t know what household situation the counter worker at Budget Rental comes from. I do know $5,000 doesn’t hold back other children, who drew a luckier lottery ticket by virtue of their birth family, from pursuing their life’s dream.

For the poor and entrepreneurially ambitious, could a universal inheritance be the key to starting a business?

The bus or the airplane ticket out of town. The first few months’ rent away from home. The new clothes for work, or for a job interview. The tools of a trade. The instruction manuals or training software and laptop. The initial inventory for a sales project. Partial tuition to a computer coding school.

codeup

With approximately 4.3 million 17 year-olds in the US, the annual cost of the universal inheritance program could be around 35 billion.

Clearly, the universal inheritance would make little difference to 18 year-olds from the top 10 percent of households, who control over 70 percent of the nation’s wealth, and even less difference to the top 1 percent of households who control close to 35 percent of the nation’s wealth. For them, this universal inheritance is just a lovely perk, a nice trip to Europe or an extra cushion for college expenses.

The bottom fifty percent of US households, by contrast, control 1% of the total wealth in the United States.

What that means, in practical terms, is that half of all teenagers become adults with no capital from their families at all to assist their next move in life, whether it’s work or further education.

In my optimistic imagination this one-time infusion of capital for everyone could create some opportunities.

 

See upcoming post:

The only feasible way ‘Universal Inheritance’ happens

 

See related posts on inequality

The WSJ video on inequality

Great video on inequality

Washington Post interactive map showing inequality

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Video: WSJ on Wealth Inequality – Causes and Solutions

wealth_inequalityI happened upon this excellent little video put out by the Red Communists who run the Wall Street Journal today. Since I think:

1. Wealth Inequality is a Top 3 issue facing the US and the World;

2. I’m in favor of everything that adds helpfully to the discussion;

3. We all have a hard time agreeing on basic facts about the causes and extent of wealth inequality (never mind the solutions!) and calm presentations like this are therefore particularly welcome!

 

Please see related posts

Video: Visualizing inequality

Inequality in America – The Map

Video: A Ted Talk by a Plutocrat on Inequality

Book Review: Plutocrats by Chrystia Freelander

Video: Chrystia Freeland Ted Talk on Inequality

Book Review: The Price of Inequality by Joseph Stiglitz

 

wealth_inequality

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Taxes Rant: Carried Interest Edition

Note: A version of this post appeared in the San Antonio Express News.

Dear Money: I miss you so, so much.

I recently mailed off – with deep feelings of loss – two of my biggest checks of the year: one for real estate taxes to the county where I live and the other to the IRS for estimated federal income taxes.

Money: I miss you so, so much
Money: I miss you so, so much

After we said our long sorrowful goodbyes at the US Post Office, money and me, I wiped those tears away, threw my shoulders back, and bravely walked back to my car. No looking back. Please, county and federal government, take good care of my money. I raised it with my own two hands, and I dearly loved it.

Don’t worry, though, this is not going to be an anti-tax rant. I’m not a TEA Party member. [1]

On the contrary, over the years I learned to embrace what my accountant taught me: If you think you pay a lot in taxes, try to remember to be happy, because it means you made what to you is a lot of money that year. Or, in the case of real estate taxes, paying a lot means you own valuable real estate.

Seen that way, complaining about paying high taxes is unattractive in the same way that a guy bemoaning the cost of expensive repairs on his Porsche is unattractive. I mean, seriously, don’t be that guy.

The key is fairness

While I believe everyone should pay a fair share of taxes, the key word here is fair.[2]

Since I just coughed up too much money in federal income taxes and local real estate taxes, I’d like to complain now about an unfair aspect of federal income taxes. Later, in an upcoming post, I’ll rant about unfairness in local real estate taxes.

Federal Income Tax unfairness

I started and ran a hedge fund for a short while. (This was years before I landed this lucrative gig writing financial rants online, for free. But anyway.)

The awesome thing about running a hedge fund or private equity fund is just how unfairly advantaged these business structures are, from a federal income tax perspective.

Fund managers earn fees in two ways, a ‘management’ fee and a ‘performance’ fee, sometimes also known as ‘carried interest.’

The more important of these – the ‘carried interest’ or ‘performance’ fee – in most cases gets taxed at a lower rate than other types of income because of the illusion that the performance fee is somehow like ‘long-term capital gains,’ rather than like regular income. It’s not.
But the tax law says it is, so, big tax advantages if you’re a hedge fund manager!

Carried interest tax loophole
Carried interest tax loophole

If we were talking about the regular scale of incomes for a blue-collar or white-collar job of people you meet in your ordinary life, the difference in these tax rates might not matter much, something on the order of $500, up to maybe $5,000, tops.

But since we’re talking about hedge fund manager-level earnings – which sometimes hit a billion dollars a year, the difference in the tax code for certain individuals can reach the hundreds of millions of dollars per year level. Which, I don’t know, starts to chafe me in my sensitive areas a bit.

Don’t get me wrong, we can all agree that nobody deserves an unfair tax break more than private equity and hedge fund owners, but at a certain point we begin to wonder about the extent of the unfairness of it all, no?

 

Please see related posts on taxes:

Shhh…Please don’t talk about my tax loophole

Adult conversation about tax policy

529 Accounts and tax fairness

 

[1] A quick aside to my liberal friends who think the TEA Party is something new. Unhappiness about paying taxes (TEA, as we know, stands for Taxed Enough Already) is as American as Apple Pie, the Star Spangled Banner, and eating greasy food until you nearly burst, on Super Bowl Sunday.

The drunken faux-Indians of the Boston Tea Party Patriots hated paying taxes to the English King. The death-seeking gun-nuts of the Alamo hated paying taxes to Mexico City, and the tyrant Santa Anna. A complete history of the United States could be written using tax-opposition as the prime motive for all major events. I’m not saying TEA party folks aren’t wacky (because many are!) but I am saying at least they have a long list of historical precedents from which to draw political sustenance.

[2] A quick aside on fairness: Fairness, of course, is in the eyes of the beholder.
In my family we retell the story of my super-cute niece, then aged four, who announced one evening: “It would be fair, to me, if I got to take a bubble bath after dinner.” She had learned enough by age four that “being fair” was important to adults, but like many of us, decided to interpret fair according to her own worldview. Since then, I frequently tell my family over dinner that it would be fair, to me, if someone drove out to Dairy Queen and bought me a treat, like, right now. This never works. Anyway, fairness. It’s important in the tax code.

[3] In the tax world, there are always exceptions to everything so I am simplifying greatly and using these hedging words like ‘usually’ and ‘sometimes’ and ‘often.’

 

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529 Accounts and Tax Fairness

Tax changesPresident Obama recently announced a series of tax changes he will propose or at least politically push for in the coming year.

Since the US Congress constitutionally controls the power of taxation, and Congress likes Obama as much as I like Pete Carroll’s Seahawks, I understand that Obama’s priorities may not come to pass any time soon.

Still, I got mad when I read this week that Obama proposes ending the tax advantages of 529 education savings accounts.[1]

seattle_seahawks_suck
I like Seattle like Congress likes Obama

My first thought: “That’s not fair!”

My second thought (and one of my favorite family mottos): “’Fair’ is for kids.”[2]

My third, kind of extended, thought: While nobody actually enjoys paying taxes, a key test of the acceptability of a tax is whether it seems ‘fair.’ And tax breaks, just like taxes themselves, also have to seem, and be, basically ‘fair.’

How do we know if something is fair? It depends a tremendous amount on which taxes one pays and which tax breaks one takes advantage of.

In the case of 529 education accounts, I had always considered them an extremely fair tax break, combining one virtue (long-range savings) with another virtue (higher education) with compound interest (the greatest of all possible things in the known universe).

529 accounts

But of course, 529 accounts are fair, to me, because I’ve started them for my young girls. I appreciate and value the tax break on future capital gains because I have a chance to benefit from them when my girls go to college.[3]

For people who haven’t started 529 accounts, or have no chance of investing for their kids this way, the tax breaks may appear targeted at some unattainable upper-middle class, college-bound elite, and therefore the tax break is inherently unfair.

I was interested to read yesterday in the Wall Street Journal the White House’s argument that 70% of benefits of 529 accounts go to households with incomes over $200,000, or the top 4% of tax returns. I hadn’t known that, nor had I imagined the benefits of 529 accounts were enjoyed by so few.

In the light of that data, my fair tax break seems a little less fair. Or at least, it seems like something that could be eliminated and replaced with something that would have a broader benefit.

Not that it’s going to happen anyway, because Obama doesn’t make tax policy, Congress does.

 

PS – 4 days after I posted this, Obama backtracked and said he won’t push for a change in 529 Accounts, after taking flak from both Dems and Repubs.

 

Please see previous posts on 529 Savings such as:

Compound Interest and College Savings

The insanely rising cost of college – Interview with a College Advisor

Is the financial model for college broken – Part 2 of Interview with College Advisor

College Savings vs. Retirement Savings

 

And previous posts on taxation such as:

Shhh…Please don’t talk about my tax loophole

Adult conversation about tax policy

 

[1] Importantly, on the issue of fairness, Obama proposed eliminating tax breaks for future investment growth obtained on contributions to a 529 account, not for investment growth on past or existing investments in 529 accounts. In other words, there’s a grandfather clause for existing 529 amounts, a common key ‘fairness’ element to taxation changes.

[2] My favorite kid and ‘fairness’ story in my family, which I’ve mentioned in another post: My then-4year-old niece told us all over dinner “It would be fair, to me, if you gave me a bubble bath after dinner.” She knew fairness mattered to adults, and tried to shoehorn her interest in bubble baths into an adult framework. She’s seventeen now and soon off to college. Cool kid. Ever after, I try to use the “It would be fair, to me…” argument with my family as much as possible.

[3] Here my wife and I always add “should they choose that path.” Because they may decide instead to run away with the circus. My older one is pretty good on the rings at the gym.

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