SHHHHHH…Please Don’t Talk About My Tax Loophole

I wrote last week that one of the great lessons of the recent Presidential campaign, for me, is how little we as a country understand income tax policy.

Since we’re about to engage in a crash course in fiscal policy[1] it’s worth focusing on the loophole of carried interest.

Both Presidential candidates referred in the debates to closing income tax loopholes, yet both were deathly afraid of mentioning anything specific, such as the egregious carried interest income tax loophole for hedge funds and private equity funds.  Romney skipped it because his entire Bain Capital career benefitted from it, and Obama skipped it because he’s derived a healthy portion of campaign funding from the same industry.[2]

Industry-specific loopholes like this always prove notoriously difficult to close, because benefits accrue to an intensely interested, knowledgeable, and well funded group, while the general public has minimal to no knowledge of the loophole, no voice at the table, and only earns a very diffuse benefit by closing the loophole.

If you don’t know what carried interest is, then you’re not particularly close to anyone in the hedge fund or private equity world.  Frankly, that is the way we in the investment world would like to keep things.  You – in the dark.  Us – avoiding taxes.

However, as a recovering fund manager dedicated to a fearless moral inventory of all things financial, I’ll explain what you’ve been missing by telling my story.

How I tried, ignorantly, to forgo my right to an awesome loophole

When I set up my private limited investment partnership – also called, inaccurately, a hedge fund[3] – my attorney insisted I set up not one additional Limited Liability Company in Delaware, but rather two.  I tried to resist him, saying I felt most comfortable with just one new business entity.[4]  I was so averse to two new entities that I asked another attorney for a second opinion.  He told me the same thing.  I needed two entities.  I asked my accountant.  His response was, of course, “two entities,” and complete puzzlement at my resistance.  Clearly, they knew something that I didn’t.  That something is the awesomeness of the carried interest loophole.  Needless to say, I got the extra LLC.[5]

Two types of income require two entities

Why did my attorney and accountant insist I create a separate entity?  Because that separate entity can collect payments in the form of ‘incentive allocation,’ also known as ‘carried interest,’ which is taxed advantageously, at the same rate as long-term capital gains[6] rather than as ordinary income.  Here’s how it works.

If you set up a traditional hedge fund[7], first things first: you’ll want to charge the traditional “2/20.”[8] Embedded in this short-hand lingo of “2/20” for hedge fund fees are two types of income.

With the two types of income, you need the two entities to keep the income tracked separately.  Entity #1 collects the “2,” which is taxed like regular business income, and Entity #2 collects the “20,” which collects your totally awesome income at a lower tax rate.

The “2” refers to an annual management fee of 2% of assets under management.  On a small/medium-sized hedge fund of, for example, $500 million under management, you will collect $10 million in management fees per year.  The purpose of this money is to pay for rent, staff, overhead, technology, research – in short all the things you need to do as a fiduciary for the proper care and feeding of the client’s money.  This management fee income will net out with business expenses, and may or may not ever generate “profit” for the manager.  In some fundamental sense, it’s not supposed to generate profit; hedge fund managers are fine earning zero profits from management fees since the $10 million is taxed like ordinary income at 35%, which is, as you know, kinda lame.

The “20” refers to the incentive allocation, meaning specifically that 20% of all annual gains are retained by the manager, in entity #2, as ‘carried interest.’  Here, the hedge fund manager takes full advantage of the loophole.  If the $500 million fund has a gain on investments of 10% this year, fully 20% of the $50 million gain on investments – that is to say $10 million – gets earned by the hedge fund manager’s entity #2 as the ‘incentive allocation’ or ‘carried interest.’

At this point, that ‘carried interest’ gets treated at the rate of capital gains, a 15% tax rate, rather than the 35% taxable rate of ordinary income.  Often, by design, the hedge fund manager leaves the entire 20% incentive allocation inside the fund for it to grow long term.  The manager only owes $1.5 million in taxes (15% of $10 million, at the capital gains tax rate) instead of $3.5 million (35% of $10 million, at the ordinary income tax rate).  As a result of the special tax treatment for ‘carried interest,’ the small/medium hedge fund manager in our example keeps $2 million more than he otherwise would have been entitled to keepThat’s a good deal, for him.

And that’s just one year.

And that’s just for kind of a small hedge fund.

You can imagine the bigger, scale-able results available for when a John Paulson-type fund manager scores  big by shorting the subprime mortgages market in 2007 (probably saved about $740 million in taxes with the loophole) or buying gold in 2010 (probably saved about $980 million in taxes with the loophole)[9]

You can also see why my attorneys and accountant insisted that I set up a separate entity that could take advantage of the tax loophole for carried interest.  My keep-my-life-simple approach made absolutely no sense in the face of potential millions in tax savings year after year.  And they knew that.

Is carried interest deserving of special treatment?

Is there anything special about ‘carried interest’ that justifies the preferred tax treatment?

Proponents argue that because much of ‘carried interest’ stays invested inside of hedge funds, still at a risk of loss, that additional risk justifies the 15% preferred tax rate.

But typically much of that ‘carried interest’ left in the market could be liquidated and taken out by the hedge fund manager anytime.[10]  (You know what else is risky?  Having a job, with a salary, that you could be fired from next week, but you have to pay a much higher tax rate on that salary.  That’s pretty risky too.)

Other proponents of ‘carried interest’ argue that tax policy should incentivize the accumulation of our economy’s scarce investment capital, basically the Ed Conard argument for lower taxes on wealth and investments.

In my opinion, that’s bunk.  Capital is not that scarce for any truly innovative segment of the economy.  Most hedge funds and private equity investments offer little value-added as innovative engines of the economy.  I know that’s my hypothesis, not a provable assertion, but I’ve seen enough on the inside to know – these hedge funds are not the engines of innovation you’re looking for.

At the end of the day, the ‘carried interest’ money is treated better than salary money because it’s been earned by a special class of people – hedge fund and private equity fund managers – who are much more influential in the political process than the average worker.  Full stop.

All of this is why I wrote last week that I would appreciate it if both sides of the political aisle would just stop lying to us about fiscal policy and loopholes and treat us like adults.  I’m ready to be pleasantly surprised.  But I’m not going to turn blue holding my breath.



[1] Thanks to the overheated discussion of a completely politically synthetically created crisis known as the Fiscal Cliff.

[2] Don’t be overly misled by some of the anti-Obama rhetoric from titans of the hedge fund industry like Omega’s Leon Cooperman.  Despite Cooperman’s choice comparisons to Nazism, or Dan Loeb saying Obama’s treats them like ‘battered wives,’ hedge fund and private equity managers know that Obama’s been all talk and no action when it comes to what they really care about.  Which is the carried interest loophole.

[3] A pet peeve of mine as well as for many people in the industry, the use of the term ‘hedge fund’ to describe what is better described as a ‘private investment limited partnership.’  ‘Hedge fund’ implies something that has no relation to my business.  I did no hedging.

[4] My reason at the time was that as a small business, I wanted to keep things simple.  A new entity meant the additional cost of entity creation and maintenance, a separate set of accounting books, a separate set of tax returns, etc.  Boy was I wrong about the potential costs and benefits, as I’ll explain below.

[5] Here’s a handy rule of thumb for non-financial people:  Whenever you see a company or business situation with lots and lots of separate business entities, you can be confident there’s tax avoidance going on.  It’s possible there’s also an attempt to shield the principals from bankruptcy, but it’s either that, or tax avoidance.  Anyway, just an FYI.

[6] See my earlier posting on tax rates for different types of income.

[7] Or private equity fund, but for the purposes of this illustration I’ll just refer to a ‘hedge fund.’

[8] Industry folks, bear with me, as you already know this, but the non-financial types don’t:  Insiders refer to hedge funds not as an asset class but as a compensation scheme.  The “2/20” is why.

[9] I’m assuming his reported gains of $3.7Billion and $4.9 Billion respectively, the largest portion of which would be in the form of tax-advantaged incentive allocation.

[10] Admitedly less so for a private equity manager, whose investments tend to be less liquid.

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Adult Conversation About Income Tax Policy

With the Fiscal Cliff1 looming, kids, it’s time for “The Talk.”

By ‘The Talk,’ I mean yank our minds into the grown-up world.  We have been innocent about how money really gets made, and kept, and taxed.  The ‘adults’ know, but they haven’t felt comfortable sharing the real truth.  We didn’t know, and we didn’t think we could talk about it.  It seems embarrassing for some reason.  Almost dirty.  Maybe it’s the way we were brought up.  Nevertheless, now’s the time for ‘The Talk.’

Here it is in a nutshell: The way the ‘grown-ups’ – our elected officials – set tax policy tells us how they value different ways of making money.  They see three different ways to make money, and they clearly favor the first two.

Inherited Money

According to our tax code it turns out the very best way to make money is the old-fashioned way:  Inherit it.

As of this writing, the first $5 million from a deceased individual can pass to you tax free.  Our elected leaders want you to know that the best way to get rich is to be born into a rich family and have the right people die at the right time.2

Stated that way, it seems a bit un-American, no?  A bit, well, aristocratic.  Nevertheless, that’s far and away the best way to earn your first $5 million.  Our leaders want you, Richie Rich, to have your first $5 million tax free.3  Mwah!

Make money with your money

The second best way to get wealthy, according to the tax code, is to already have a lot of money, and then earn money on your money.

If you already have a lot of money, then a significant proportion, probably a majority of your income, will come from three sources: Tax Free Bonds, long-term capital gains on your investments, or corporate stock dividends.4

The best of these investments, tax wise, is Triple Tax Free municipal bonds, which are exempt from local, state and federal income taxes.  You earn just about 0.5% interest5 these days, but if you’ve got $100 million in triple tax free muni bonds then you’ve got yourself $500,000 a year, tax free!  That pays for quite a few golf outings a year, with money left over for the lobster roll at the club and a tip for the valet.

The next best way to make a living from your investments, according to the tax code, is to buy and hold stocks for at least 18 months before selling at a profit, so that your earnings will be taxed at a rate of only 15%, the long-term capital gains rate.

Should you be so fortunate as to start out in life with a massive stock portfolio, your elected officials say to you: “Good Job!  That’s an excellent way to make a living!  Let us incentivize you to earn the majority of your living by having your pile of money do all the work, while you join that swell municipal bond fellow at the club.”

The third best way to earn money from your money is to hold stocks for at least 60 days, thereby earning qualified dividends, likewise taxed at a comfortable 15% rate.6

I interpret all of these three tax policies combined as our elected officials’ way of saying that the next best way of making a living – after being born into a rich family – is to sit around like Scrooge McDuck investing money, and only paying 0% and 15% on one’s income.7

Mitt Romney’s 14% effective tax rate in 2011 derives from this tax advantaged way to ‘earn’ a living, just as your elected officials would like you to.

Working for a living

The ‘grown-ups’ who make tax policy tell us this is the worst way to make money.  You see, if you work for a salary, that income is liable to be taxed at the maximum income tax rate.

If you can make less than $35,350 a year, fine, they’ll tax you at a 15% rate.

But over that, you’re looking at 25%, 28%, 33%, or up to 35% for those making over $388,351.  The lesson of the tax code is that people who actually work for a living, rather than inherit from Daddy or live like Scrooge McDuck, should be taxed the most.  “Working for a living?” they taunt us, “that’s for chumps!  Tax that man at the maximum possible rate!”

That’s “The Talk” about our tax policy which creates better and worse ways to make money in this country.  No, Virginia, there is no Santa Claus, but there is a Richie Rich and a Scrooge McDuck.  And our elected officials just love them!

 

 

 


 

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  1.  Is it weird that I love the sound that the phrase ‘Fiscal Cliff’ makes in the mouth?  Its poetry, really.  To mangle a bit of Nabokov:  “Fis.Cal.Cliff.  Taking a trip of three steps through the split fricative to tap front teeth, at three, on the lower lip.”
  2.  Yankees owner and billionaire George Steinbrenner famously died in 2010, the one year in recent memory during which the Estate Tax was wholly repealed.  George was worth an estimate $1.1 Billion, so the fact of the Estate Tax repeal in 2010 made the Steinbrenner heirs $500 million richer than they would have been had he died in 2009, as the estate tax rate was 45% of inherited wealth that year.  As a Red Sox fan, I’m just so happy for those boys, Hal and Hank.  It couldn’t have happened to a nicer family.
  3. We will hear, or we should hear, quite a bit about the estate tax in the coming weeks, as the limit exemption on tax-free inheritance reverts back to $1 million and a 55% rate in 2013, if Congress does not take action. “Death Taxes on Small Businesses” is how one political side always describes the Estate Tax, but that’s mostly a load of bull.  The real implication of the estate tax is to what extent our leaders signal that the best way to get $5 million is to be born into the right family.
  4. If you’re not making any money through tax free munis, long term stock holdings and dividends, well then you can just skip to the third section, you working stiff.  Our elected officials can’t be bothered with you, if you can’t take a hint about how to make money.  Jeez.
  5. On 5 year municipal bonds, for example.
  6. The low 15% ‘qualified dividends’ tax incentive ends in 2012, unless Congress acts to extend or modify it, as Congress did, with Obama’s approval, in 2010.
  7. The other great advantage to being Scrooge McDuck from a tax perspective, is that – unlike a working-stiff salaryman – you can choose what year to harvest stock market gains.  Scrooge McDuck can end up with virtually no taxable income in any given year should he choose to sell no appreciated stock.  Or Mr. Duck can match up investment losses with investment gains to have no net taxable income, or even to trigger a tax refund.  In a related story, did you know Mitt Romney got a $1.6 million tax refund last year?

Natural Gas Revolution Part V – The Labor Market

Mr. Grizzly, Mr. Deliverance and Mr. Biscuit – Contractors and the Eagle Ford Labor Market

Among the main lessons of our tour of the Eagle Ford, is that there’s a lot of jobs down here.  If you’re a man currently out of work, and you have the use of all of your limbs, there’s a job available for you in South Texas, right now.  Like, today.  If you feel like working for a living – go.

At the newly constructed drilling pad the first order of business was to receive another safety briefing.  If I – in my hazmat suit – look like I just escaped from the movie set of E.T., our safety instructor looks like he escaped from the movie set of Deliverance.  He of the scraggly goatee points out the safe gathering point on the pad in the event of a massive blowout or fire.  He makes me nervous on a number of different fronts.

Another grizzled veteran – with 40 years of drilling experience – takes over the drilling pad narrative at this point.

While Mr. Grizzly is old enough to be a grandfather, this is not your grandfather’s drilling operation.  He explains that this particular drill rig we’re looking at, built a few days before we arrived, can ‘walk.’ What he means is they can drill 10,000 feet underground for a few days, then slide the entire 100 foot above-ground structure a few feet away and drill an entirely new underground well, without dismantling the rig.

Since the relevant underground piping for hydrocarbon is horizontal, underground wells can line up next to each other a few feet away but cover a horizontal mile in entirely different directions from a single drilling pad.  This ability to ‘walk’ the rig and set up multidirectional horizontal wells saves days of labor and hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Mr. Grizzy loves this feature.

Listening to Mr. Grizzly I’m struck that this place isn’t swarming with younger guys, and Mr. Grizzy tells us why.  When the 1980s oil crash struck Texas, an entire generation of workers washed out of the business to work elsewhere.  A few like Mr. Grizzly and Mr. Deliverance stuck it out, and new guys are now joining up, but there’s a missing generation of workers, adding to the difficulty of finding competent experienced workers in the Eagle Ford shale.

Also notable on the drill site are the predominance of contractors.

Everything, it turns out, seemingly depends on contractors and sub-contractors.  Halliburton is on the drilling pad here, as is Schlumberger, to name two huge world-wide oil-service contractors.[1]  But everything down to skilled mechanics and plumbers has to be located and hired separately.[2]

This makes sense as I think about this now, since so much is needed in this previously-empty outback country.  Hardly anybody lived out here before the Eagle Ford shale play began, so everything has to be provided in the absence of pre-existing infrastructure.  Contractors guard the gates to the drilling site; contractors supply the tricked-out Mad Max trucks; contractors even set up the barbecue tent where we were served lunch.

Our host company owns the lease, will oversee extraction from the site for years to come, and will take the oil and gas to market once it gets above ground, but they’ve sub-contracted the actual few weeks of drilling to another group, and that’s who Mr. Deliverance works for.  Mr. Deliverance’s team sets up the drill rig in less than a week and spends another week drilling up to ten thousand feet underground and as much as a mile horizontally, blasting and fracking as it goes.  Following an intense 2-3 weeks of drilling activity, the drilling contractor moves to the next drill site with the same or a different independent operator.

With some sense of what we’re now looking at, we are invited to climb aboard the actual rig, where our steel-toed boots come in handy. We clamber up steep steps to a platform, then over a series of porous metal grates.  Underfoot we see specialty ‘mud’ stored beneath us, a chemically-treated liquid mixture to facilitate the upcoming drilling process.  The actual chemicals mentioned were a mystery to me, but Mr. Grizzly mentions falling into the ‘mud’ container at least once in the past.  Mr. Grizzly appears well past procreation age to me, so I’ve decided not to worry about that too much.[3]

Later in the day, at a separate fracking site, I get another taste of the tight labor market down here.  In an air-conditioned trailer, two men watch flat-screen monitors where all manner of data keeps them apprised of ongoing fracking activity on site.

One of the men hardly notices us, so engrossed is he in his monitors, but the other introduces himself cheerfully as a native of Biscuit, KY.  Based on his overall affect, not to mention his denim overalls, if he wasn’t overseeing a fracking job I’m pretty sure he’d be watching professional wrestling on his couch, right now.  He seemed pretty happy, indeed surprised, to be gainfully employed.  Somehow his provenance from Biscuit tells me what I need to know about the labor market in the Eagle Ford shale.  And no, I can’t find Biscuit, KY on Google Maps either.

See also Part I – Mad Max Bizarro World

Part II – Big, Corporate, Well Capitalized

Part III – The Drilling and Fracking Scene

Part IV – How Big Is This?

 



[1] One of the unfortunately named contractors on this site was Patterson-UTI.  My wife’s an infectious disease doctor, and as such, would never endorse naming something “UTI.”  It sounds like something you’re likely to catch from the infamous ‘Man Camps’ that have sprung up around fracking areas around the country.

[2] I asked our hosts towards the end of the day how someone could ‘get rich’ in Eagle Ford right now.  They all agreed setting up a contracting company was the way to go.  Anyone with a skill and a willingness to work hard could make a good living with so much need for skilled labor.

[3] On the other hand, the unique combination of chemicals in the ‘mud,’ if they didn’t kill him, might have been enough to make him unbelievably strong.  Isn’t that how most superheroes get made?  Can somebody do a cartoon mockup for me of Mr. Grizzly and his superpowers after he emerges from the ‘mud?’

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Natural Gas Revolution Part IV – How Big Is This?

Our hosts drilled a total of 239 wells in South Texas, which at $7 million per drilled well would indicate a $1.7 Billion investment in drilling wells alone by this one company.  They also report a $440 million investment in a fracking team, plus major investments in building collection points for their product and pipelines to move it.  Given that they are only the 12th biggest independent operator in the area, it’s easy to see how companies have invested over $100 Billion the Eagle Ford shale play alone.

Nationwide, industry author Daniel Yergin reports an estimated 1.7 million jobs will be created in the natural gas revolution, with an estimated additional $62 billion in Federal and State taxes collected in 2012 as a result of this activity.

The New York Times reports that the largest 50 oil and gas companies spent $126 Billion per year in the United States, over the last six years, in new oil and gas drilling and land acquisition.

For my friends who look in dismay at the drilling industry and fracking in particular I’m compelled to point out that this kind of money doesn’t scare easily.  The anti-fracking folks are working hard to find evidence of environmental and health damage as a result of the fracking revolution, and will no doubt do their darndest to keep the pressure on, but they have a tough fight on their hands with this kind of major capital.

 

A Silver Lining on this Massive Scale, Maybe

There is one silver lining, however, to this kind of massive, money-intensive operation.  From a safety and environmental perspective, paradoxically, huge scale could be seen as good news.  Big, corporate, capital intensive businesses are all about reducing risks, which will make them extremely sensitive to environmental liabilities and public relations liabilities, in a way that wildcatters simply won’t be.  That’s the theory at least.

Of course, our host company gives the State Rep and me the pitch on how safe fracking really is, and the safety mechanisms involved to prevent ground-water contamination.

The gist of his presentation, since you’re curious, is that a series of concrete tubes in overlapping layers prevents fracking fluids, and the eventually extracted hydrocarbons, from leaking into our groundwater.  We hope.

See also Part I – Mad Max Bizarro World

Part II – Big, Corporate, Well Capitalized

Part III – The Drilling and Fracking Scene

Part V – The Labor Market in the Eagle Ford

 

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Natural Gas Revolution Part III – The Drilling and Fracking Scene

If you’re a boy, and you like big powerful tools, you might like the next part of our tour.

Early on in our tour of the drilling pad, we entered the air-conditioned trailer where the head driller directs the drill bit.  For the uninitiated viewer (for example, me), the seat of power is not unlike Han Solo’s seat in the Millennium Falcon.  Large, flat-screen monitors with custom drilling software ergonomically surround the drill master’s elevated LA-Z-Boy-style throne with smooth swivel capabilities.  A joystick and keyboard accompany the cushioned seat which also faces a wind-shield view of the outdoor drill rig.

The State Rep and I each insist on mounting the throne, if only for a few moments, to feel the power of the master driller.1  Drilling teams, we learn, work 24 hours a day in 12-hour rotating shifts until the work is complete.

The fracking site which we visited after lunch had a whole different look to it.

Unlike the drilling site, dominated by a tall metal and plastic rig for punching a hole in the ground, giant green sand storage tanks and tubing dominate the fracking site.

Two dozen green urns elevated on stilts hold about 500 of tons of sand each – literally trainloads full brought from quarries in Wisconsin or Minnesota.

[A buddy of mine, not on site with me at this time, is in the frack-sand provision business, shipping those trainloads of sand from the North into South Texas.  I interviewed him here and here.]

Conveyer belts stretch from the colon of the urns to an unseen area.  Twelve-inch wide jointed metal tubes run from there to entrance points near the well head.  These overgrown green aliens arrived from the Planet Arachnid, and now are poised, abdomen down, to blast their chemicals deep into the ground.2

At our feet we examine blasting tubes manufactured in Fort Worth, TX specifically to provide explosive charges to break open the rock.  All of this equipment allows the operators to force a slurry of water, sand, guar, and chemicals deep into the earth at extraordinary pressure – enough to smash open dense rock formations and then keep them open for the oil and gas to flow.

The engineering and custom-manufacturing of the outdoor structures, and the custom software and computing power indoors, reinforced our strong impression of the massive scale of investment in Eagle Ford.  Some of the workers may look rough, but the equipment is brand new and highly specialized.

See Also:Part I – Mad Max Bizarro World

And Part II – Big, Corporate, Well Capitalized

Part IV – How Big is the Natural Gas Revolution?

Part V – The Labor Market in the Eagle Ford

 

 

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  1. I don’t know about my State Rep friend, but I know for me, sitting up there, I wanted to blast a hole two miles deep into the fucking earth, while simultaneously laser-rocketing Tie Fighters with pinpoint accuracy.
  2. I would have accused the Wachowskis of copying these shapes for those Nebuchadnezzar search-and-destroy insects, but The Matrix came out before fracking really took off.

Four Reactions to the Election

Four quick thoughts now that the elections are over, from a recovering banker.

1. The equity indexes fell immediately at the open today, and remain down over 2% on the day.  Do not let any talking head from the financial-industrial-infotainment industry try to suggest that this is in response to Obama’s election.  Every trader on the planet knew that Obama had a 60% chance of winning as of last month, a 75% chance of winning as of last week, and a 90% chance of winning as of the final 48 hours.[1]  Nobody who manages capital for a living was caught off-guard by the Obama victory, so nobody suddenly had to reposition their portfolio as a result this morning.  Markets and the people with real capital who participate in them are forward-looking and probabilistic; equity markets  already reflected widespread expectations of an Obama victory.

2. The next Treasury Secretary matters tremendously for the biggest financial-regulatory issue of the day – the unaddressed problem of Too Big To Fail banks.  Secretary Geithner pre-announced that he would not serve in a second Obama administration[2] so the hunt for a new Treasury Secretary is now underway.  Geithner’s utterly failed to address the TBTF problem and pushed the Obama administration into a business-as-usual, same-guys-in-charge approach to Wall Street reform.  Secretary Paulson’s background as the former Goldman chief who grew up professionally with the rest of Wall Street’s heads played an inordinate role in selecting the winners and losers of the Credit Crunch of 2008, along with in providing the ultimate government backstop for the country’s biggest financial firms.  Had Paulson come from any other industry – instead of finance – he would have seen what the rest of us saw: It’s unconscionable to allow firms to pay executive bonuses[3] in the same year that the firms were bailed out by taxpayers.  Geithner continued Paulson’s protective approach to Wall Street banks, rather than seizing the opportunity to extract real concessions or reform when the industry needed the government to survive.

I’m not suggesting we put someone like Elizabeth Warren[4] in charge, but we need someone who can independently evaluate what parts of Wall Street need supporting and which parts need curbing.  Somebody, in other words, who didn’t spend his or her entire life working on the Street.

3. The “Fiscal Cliff” and fiscal responsibility.

Obviously the FC now becomes the next hot topic for overheated punditry, at least until we pass the January deadline.

I’m not optimistic about the tone of the discussion nor about the possible results of fiscal compromise, but I do have my wishes.

I wish that, with elections for Congress now two years away, can we have less complete bullshit when it comes to fiscal policy positions?  Would that be too much to ask?

One party’s leader says the solution lies in tax cuts.  The other party’s leader says the solution lies in more generous social spending.  One party’s leader says military spending is untouchable.  The other party’s leader says transfer payments and social safety net spending is untouchable.  All those proposals leave us in a worse fiscal position as a nation.

Hey guys?  Can you treat us like grown-ups?  We can handle a bit more truth than you’re giving us credit for.  We know budget deficits have a terrible trajectory and only a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts will correct the course.

Say what you will about the 2016 Republican nominee, Gov. Chris Christie, he’s proved that refreshingly blunt and seemingly unpopular – but honest talk – can appeal to both sides of the political aisle.  Let’s have some more of that as we drive, full throttle, toward the Fiscal Cliff.

4. Tax policy

I’ll have more to write about this shortly, but one of interesting lessons of Mitt Romney’s candidacy is how little the US electorate understands, or cares to understand, about our income tax policies.

By releasing only his 2010 and 2011 income tax returns, Romney effectively obfuscated his financial background.  He signaled (albeit quietly) that his tax-planning strategies were so aggressive that their release would explode his electoral chances.  And yet, I don’t think this cost him anything real in the end in terms of votes.  He calculated – correctly! – that the electorate’s ignorance of current tax policies, and popular tax-planning strategies of the wealthy would protect him.

Despite heightened resentment toward the wealthy, I observe the “99%,” for the most part, has no idea what they don’t know.  They can’t even conceive of the many ways someone like Romney avoids paying his proportionate share of taxes.  Romney knew that, and he was not about to wake that ignorant, sleeping giant by revealing his methods in the unreleased tax returns.



[1] Because professional traders pay attention to data and evidence, not pundits trying to hype a competitive race.  Which is why Nate Silver is a the mutherflipping P.I.M.P. of the moment.

[3] Bonuses are for success.  Bonuses are optional.  Bonuses should reflect private profit and should never be paid by borrowing from taxpayers.  Only a deeply embedded executive like Paulson could have missed the implications of this.

[4] I know I may sound strident when it comes to Wall Street reform, but I actually admire the industry very much and I want it to thrive.  Warren, by contrast, strikes me as overly ideological when it comes to Wall Street, incapable of seeing the positive.

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